Friday, September 29, 2006

Beware!...SEZs Ahead!!!

Ahead in time, that is!

SEZs (or Special Economic Zones) is an interesting - and frightening - phenomenon happening in India....

....and an apt example of "secession of the successful"... to quote: "those who are successful tend to retreat into a totally private world. They use private electricity. They attend private schools and colleges. They live in private colonies, manned by private security guards. They socialise at private clubs, use only private transport and thus they cease to have any stake at all in the ‘public realm’ or in the public world. In our country, of course, even the public realm is often ‘privatised’."

Here is a primer for the late-comers - and for those who may be concerned:

  • SEZs are considered to be "foreign territories" as far as trade, tarriffs and duties are considered. They can source raw material and capital goods without paying any duty or license... and they have free complete access to domestic markets. Incidentally, if you buy material from an SEZ, then You will be paying the import duty.

  • There is also no bar on developers (e.g., an Ambani, or Tatas, or DLF, or Mahindras or Sahara, etc.) not to shift their existing facilities inside the SEZs.

  • Only 35% of the land needs to be used for the core purpose... rest can be used for real estate, shopping malls, multiplexes, residential and commercial property, etc. (The Ministry of Commerce has the option to reduce this 35% to 25%, as according to its wisdom)

  • Labour laws are not applicable within SEZs, and the projects in SEZs are exempt from environmental impact assessment.

  • 100% of profits from FDI in manufactuing can be repatriated freely.

  • 100% tax exemption on exports for first 5 years, and 50% for the next. The SEZ developers get 10 years of tax holiday.

  • The investments going into developing these SEZs are estimated to be Rs 100,000 crores, and the loss to the exchequer will be around Rs 90,000 crore.

  • About the job-creation promise, one will have to wait and see. The past record of the EPZs was that they all together created just 100,000 jobs (and till 1998 they had generated around Rs 4700 crores in Forex at the cost of around Rs 7500 crores as forgone customs duties)

    The only "redeeming" feature of this modern day avatar of "robber barron" scheme is that the cost to the exchequer for all this will be coming from the tax-payers' pocket (i.e, from those who can afford to pay tax in India - i.e., about 5-10% of its population)...

    ...and so for the first time, the middle-class urban India - and not just those unwary victims of development for "the larger good" - will also get an opportunity (and taste) of contributing to the "economic development"/GDP-growth/FDIs as compared to China, etc. - or whatever feeds their self-worth) - of the country...

  • Tuesday, September 26, 2006

    India in Numbers

    NOTE: 1 crore = 10mn; 1 lac = 0.1mn; $1 = about Rs.45


  • India is world's 2nd largest exporter of rice, and world's 5th largest exporter of wheat

  • Over past 5 years, on average 15,000 farmers have committed suicide every year (i.e., 4-5/day) due to poverty and indebtness. An Indian farmer household has an average debt of Rs 12,585 - 82% farmer households in Andhra Pradesh, 74.5% in Tamil Nadu, 65.4% in Punjab, 61.1% in Karnataka, 54.8% in Maharashtra, etc. live in debt.

  • India is world's 2nd largest fruit and vegetables producer, and the largest producer of milk

  • One third of India’s population goes hungry to bed everyday.

  • India is world’s largest producer of tea accounting for 30% of global produce, and 25% of spices produced globally.

  • 1/3rd of world’s population without adequate water-supply lives in India.

  • Agriculture accounts for 14-15% of country's exports

  • 600mn Indians depend on agriculture for subsistence. 60% of farmers are small/medium farmers with holdings of up to 0.4 hectare plot. The average farm holding in India is 1.4 hectare, and only 15% farmers have plots larger than 10 hectare. Of the 455mn acre cultivable land, less than 5mn is with rural poor.

  • India is world’s largest producer of mica, 3rd largest producer of coal & lignite, 2nd largest producer of cement.

  • India has around 400-410mn employable workforce, of which about 377mn are employed. Only 7% of India's employed work in "organised" sector.

  • 44% of India’s workforce is illiterate, and 23% has education up to primary level. More than 90% rural workforce, and more than 80% of urban workforce has no “marketable” skill (e.g, typing, brick-laying, fishing, driving, basket-making, carpentry, tailoring, etc.).

  • India is among the 3 countries (US and Japan being the other two), who have built its own indigenous 4th generation super computer.

  • 80% of India’s public health problems are due to water-borne diseases; 1 in 4 persons dying from a water-borne disease is an Indian.

  • India is among the 6 countries worldwide, who have developed its own space technology (23 satellite in orbit and 14 geo-stationary satellites). It has not only launched its own satellite, but also for countries like Germany, Korea and Belgium. ISRO/Antrix Corp.'s clientele include the European Commission (for agriculture and forestry), Japan (volcanic activity), US (telephone network mapping, rail alignments, Wal-Mart, airlines) and Thailand (information). Its images are distributed by Space Imaging Inc and Euromap.

  • The official definition of poverty in India is: a monthly income of less than Rs.329(or $7)/month (rural) and Rs.457(or $10)/month (urban); 33.6% (rural) and 28.5% (urban) of Indian population - i.e., around 280mn Indians - lives below poverty line. Of India’s poor, 40% are landless labours, 45% small/marginal farmers, and 7.5% rural artisans.

  • India has one of the world’s largest technically qualified manpower, comprising of 15mn doctors, engineers and scientists. There are about 30mn graduates, post-graduates and doctorates in India.

  • India has around 0.6mn primary schools – out of which around 60% have a single teacher (for class I-V), 59% have no drinking water, and 85% have no toilets. As for teaching aids, 26% have no blackboard, 59% have no access to maps and charts, and 77% have no library.

  • India is world’s largest producer of sponge iron.

  • India hosts 1/3rd of world’s leprosy patients

  • India's real estate investment market is estimated to be $50bn, and is predicted to grow to $180bn by 2020. During last 4 years, the average return on investment has been of around 50%.

  • India is estimated to have 50mn DIDs (Development-Induced-Displaced "oustees") - excluding the displaced landless labours, fishermen, and the rural artisans, who are not counted for compensation and rehabilitation.

  • There are close to 0.8mn HNWIs ("high net worth individuals") in India, whose net worth is more than $1mn. The number of HNWIs in India is growing twice the global rate, and their cumulative liquid wealth is moe than $200bn.

  • Between 1951-90, 26mn were DIDs due to development of dams and canals, mining, new industries, etc.; According to Govt of India, in 1995, 75% of them were still “awaiting rehabilitation”. 40% of DIDs are tribal who constitute 8% of India’s population.

  • Indian pharmaceutical industry ranks 4th in the world in terms of volumes, and 13th in terms of value. Indian Pharma industry has the highest number of plants approved by US FDA outside US. Indian drug companies also topped the drug filing with FDA, accounting for 20% of all drugs coming into US market.

  • For a country with 3/4th of population in villages, India has 20% hospital beds in villages.

  • India is world's largest center for diamond cutting and polishing. 9 out of 10 diamonds sold anywhere in the world pass through India.

  • In rural India (comprising of 3/4th of population), only 7.3% have a monthly income of more than Rs.775/month; In urban India, only 7.8% earn of more than Rs.1500/month. Only 15% of India’s 190mn households have an family income of more than Rs.2.5 lacs/ annum; only 4% of India’s population earns more than Rs.4 lacs/annum.

  • Moser Baer is the world's 3rd largest optical media manufacturer and lowest cost manufacturer of CD-recorders. It supplies to 7 of the world's top 10 CD-R manufacturers.

  • About 0.5mn people in India die from TB every year

  • Bharat Forge is world's 2nd largest maker of forged vehicle component, and has the world's largest single-location facilility of 1.2 lkh tonnes/annum. Its client list includes Toyota, Honda, Volvo, Cummins, Daimler Chrysler. Exports account for 3/4 of its earnings.

  • 1.5mn infants die from diarrhoea in India every year – i.e., 1 out of every 4 infants worldwide. 68/1,000 Indian babies die before their first birthday.

  • Hero Honda is the world's largest manufacturer of motorcycles (annual production 1.7mn)

  • There are about 3crore legal cases pending in Indian courts, and there is a shortage of about 3,000 judges.

  • Asian Paints has production facilities in 22 countries spread across five continents. Acquisition of Berger International gave it access to 11 countries; it also acquired SCIB Chemical SAE in Egypt. Asian Paints is the market leader in 11 of the 22 countries in which it is present, including India.

  • About 285-290mn Indians live in urban India. Of these, 21% live in slums, and 60% work in unorganised sector without any social security.

  • Hindustan Inks has the world’s largest single stream, fully integrated ink plant, of 1 lakh tonnes per annum capacity, at Vapi, Gujarat. It has a manufacturing plant and a 100 per cent subsidiary in the US. It has another 100 per cent subsidiary in Austria.

  • About 66% of India’s 640,000 villages have a population of less than 1,000 – and without connectivity to the rest of the world; only 2.3% have a population of more than 5,000.

  • Essel Propack is the world’s largest laminated tube manufacturer. It has a manufacturing presence in 11 countries including China, a global manufacturing share of 25 per cent, and caters to all of P&G’s laminated tube requirements in the US, and 40 per cent of Unilever’s.

  • For every 100 girls enrolled in rural India, only 40 reach class IV, 9 reach class IX and only 1 reaches class XII.

  • Ajanta is the world's largest clocks manufacturer, which exports to more than 60 countries.

    India, as the cliché goes, is a land of contrasts!

  • Saturday, September 23, 2006

    Alternative Perspective is 4-Year Old

    I guess in this ever-shifting world - and a somewhat not-so-routine personal life - to sustain an effort for 4 years, does call for taking a note...

    I just realised that today (Sept 23rd) happens to be the 4th anniversary of the Alternative Perspective... And so, please allow me to reminiscence a bit...

    Though, Alternative Perspective is now a blog, but it had actually started as a weekly (and sometime fortnightly) "Newsletter" in Sept 2002; each issue came with 5-6 items, and posted to the Alternative Perspective yahoogroup...
    The past issues of the Newsletter are archived here

    However, 2 years and 50 issues later (the 50th issue came on its 2nd anniversary - Sept 23rd, 2004), I started finding that 'creating' an issue of the Newsletter was becoming a drag. Besides taking time, it was also not allowing me to synthesize my own understanding of issues. In the last few issues of the AltP Newsletter I tried to do that by making them 'theme-based', but it was not very satisfying....

    ...After all, the raisen daitre of Alternative Perspective was my attempt (and need) to understand and make sense of social/political/economic issues. Even before starting the AltP Newsletter, I had started keying some articles (as an attempt to 'sense-making' of a turbulent chaotic world) on my website, e.g.,

  • ...how it all began
  • Anatomy of Collateral Damage
  • Why You Can't Buy Mauritanian Camel Cheese in Europe
    etc.

    Meanwhile blogs were becoming common, and I had already created this blog in March 2003. So, the Newsletter merged with the blog, and AlternativePerspective became a blog (it is still connected to the yahoogroup, and each posting gets posted to its 400-odd members.

    Personally, this 4-year old venture has been quite a learning and growing-up experience for me, and it has remained one central and unifying personal platform (or graffitti board;0).

    The fact that there is also a readership has made it worthwhile and made this into something more than just solipsistic musings. So thanks to you all, who read these scribblings, visit the blog, leave comments, get connected, share insights and stories...

    In the meanwhile, life has moved on, and my interests have also widened... The latest love-affair is with Social Entrepreneurship (and therefore, a new course & a new parallel blog;)...

  • Saturday, September 16, 2006

    Some News is not "Newsworthy"...

    When "news" becomes a "story" - as it has increasingly become these days - then has to follow a predictable course.

    A good story has a story-line, and its unfolding must fit into the "plot". If some facts, do not support the story-line, then they need to be ignored or underplayed.

    And therefore, some news does not remain "newsworthy".

    Here are some examples:

    IAEA Protests "Erroneous" U.S. Report on Iran
    VIENNA (Reuters) Thu Sep 14, 5:51 AM ET:
    U.N. inspectors have protested to the U.S. government and a Congressional committee about a report on Iran's nuclear work, calling parts of it "outrageous and dishonest," according to a letter obtained by Reuters... The letter recalled clashes between the IAEA and the Bush administration before the 2003 Iraq war over findings cited by Washington about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction that proved false, and underlined continued tensions over Iran's dossier.


    US Paid Anti-Cuba Journalists
    BBC, Friday, 8 September 2006:
    At least 10 Florida-based journalists were paid by the US government to contribute to anti-Cuba propaganda broadcasts, the Miami Herald says... Three writers have been sacked by the Miami Herald newspaper group for an alleged conflict of interest...
    ...Mr Cao has now admitted being paid by the US government, the Herald reports... "There is nothing suspect in this," he said. "I would do it for free. But the regulations don't allow it. I charge symbolically, below market prices."


    US Moves to Scuttle Arab Plan for International Peace Conference
    Sep. 14, 2006 21:55:
    The US is trying to block attempts by Arab countries to turn the UN Security Council into a key player in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict during the upcoming General Assembly opening next week.

    In discussions among Israeli and US officials over the past few days, it was agreed that the US will use its diplomatic power to sideline the Arab League initiative, which intends to use the Security Council as the main vehicle for convening an international peace conference to deal with the conflict.


    When Rockets and Phosphorous Cluster
    Haaretz: Fri., September 15, 2006 Elul 22, 5766
    "In Lebanon, we covered entire villages with cluster bombs, what we did there was crazy and monstrous," testifies a commander in the Israel Defense Forces' MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) unit. Quoting his battalion commander, he said the IDF fired some 1,800 cluster rockets on Lebanon during the war and they contained over 1.2 million cluster bombs. The IDF also used cluster shells fired by 155 mm artillery cannons, so the number of cluster bombs fired on Lebanon is even higher. At the same time, soldiers in the artillery corps testified that the IDF used phosphorous shells, which many experts say is prohibited by international law.... The commander asserted that there was massive use of MLRS rockets despite the fact that they are known to be very inaccurate - the rockets' deviation from the target reaches to around 1,200 meters - and that a substantial percentage do not explode and become mines... The percentage of duds among the rockets fired by the U.S. army in Iraq reached 30 percent and the United Nations' land mine removal team in Lebanon claims that the percentage of duds among the rockets fired by the IDF reaches some 40 percent.... According to the commander, in order to compensate for the rockets' imprecision, the order was to "flood" the area with them....


    Former Soviet Republics Give Up Nukes; US Objects
    September 14, 2006
    The Bush administration is objecting to a groundbreaking treaty that set up a nuclear weapon-free zone in Central Asia.

    Under the treaty signed Friday, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan committed themselves not to produce, buy, or allow the deployment of nuclear weapons on their soil.

    But the United States, along with Britain and France, refused to attend the signing ceremony in the Kazakh capital... "The reason that many of us suspect the U.S. is opposed to this is more fundamental," the independent Arms Control Association's Daryl G. Kimball told OneWorld. "This is a very strategic region. The U.S. is reticent to give up the option of deploying nuclear weapons in this region in the future."

    Sunday, September 10, 2006

    On the eve of 9/11: Reality is weirder than... er, reality

    I recall an old joke about a news in newspaper. It read:

    "As our readers know, we always bring you the news before the other newspaper. Yesterday, for instance, we were to first to report that the President of the country was found to have links with an underworld don. Today, we are the first newspaper to tell you that that news was wrong."

    And so, last week - after more than 3 years of ravaging a country, and after getting as many US soldiers killed in Iraq, as were killed in the 9/11 WTC attack (not to mention the uncounted tens of thousands of Iraqis), the US Senate Intelligence announced that there was no link between Al-Qaida and Saddam Hussein, and that "Saddam Hussein rejected overtures from al-Qaida and believed Islamic extremists were a threat to his regime...."

    Thanks! that is really revealing finding... Very intriguing too!!!... since:

  • more than 2 years back, in June 2004, even the Sept 11 commission had reached the same conclusion. As BBC had reported then: "The US national commission examining the 11 September 2001 attacks has found no "credible evidence" that Iraq helped al-Qaeda militants carry them out."

  • In fact, a month before Iraq invasion, in Feb 2003, bin Laden had called Saddam Hussein an "infidel" and had called on Iaqis to rise up and overthrow the "socialist" dictator (ironically, the same appeal was also made by GW Bush!!)

  • MSNBC had covered Osama bin Laden's taped message: "At the same time, the message also called on Iraqis to rise up and oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who is a secular leader.".... Of course, the channel soon scrubbed out it in favour of the Ministry of Truth!!!

    Meanwhile...

  • "War on Terror", "9/11", "Osama bin Laden", "Democratisation of Middle-East", etc., have lost their "brand value"... And so a new term has got added to US foreign policy - "Islamofascism". An article in Newsweek reports:
    "Last fall White House aides were grappling with a seemingly simple question that had eluded them for years: what should the president, in his many speeches on the war on terror, call the enemy? They were searching for a single clean phrase that could both define the foe and reassure Americans who were confused by a conflict that had grown much bigger than Osama bin Laden. But the answer was anything but simple. Some academics preferred the term "Islamism," but the aides thought that sounded too much as if America were fighting the entire religion. Another option: jihadism. But to many Muslims, it's a positive word that doesn't necessarily evoke bloodshed. Some preferred the conservative buzzword "Islamofascism," which was catchy and tied neatly into Bush's historical view of the struggle."

  • Last week, GW Bush acknowledged that "One of the hardest parts of my job is to connect Iraq to the war on terror"

  • ...and also acknowledged that CIA prisons exist across the globe. According to one news report:
    "President Bush finally confirmed that we have been running secret CIA prisons abroad since 2001, where detainees have been routinely tortured... Two of those tortured souls were the sole source for Secretary of State Colin Powell's 2003 statements before the United Nations on Iraq's connection with al-Qaida and Iraq's possession of WMDs. Both men have since recanted those statements. One was obtained when the CIA was doing a "mock burial" - i.e., burying him alive!"

    Now, just in case, all this reminds you of a certain country in western Europe in 1930s-40s... of course, not!!... we are now living in civilised times, with a UN and an international community to safeguard against revival of those barbaric acts...

    Reality, after all, cannot be weirder than reality.... or can it be?

  • Friday, August 18, 2006

    ...Merely "Irrelevant" Questions !??

    ...these are some examples of the 14-15 MCQs (out of 100) that were asked in the Gujarat Public Service Commission (GPSC) recruitment examination for Ayurvedic doctors earlier this month:

  • Which date is observed as 'black day' by minorities, but as 'victory day' by the Sangh Parivar?
    (a) September 11
    (b) July 2
    (c) January 26
    (d) December 6

  • Who can destablise the UPA government.
    (a) CPI(M) leaders Jyoti Basu, Prakash Karat
    (b) Tamil Nadu CM M Karunanidhi
    (c) Railways Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav

  • Who has said that Christians have the right to convert others?
    (a) the Pope,
    (b) UPA
    (c) chairperson Sonia Gandhi,
    (d) Sister Nirmala and Father Cedric Prakash

  • After whom has Narendra Modi named India's biggest gas project on the Krishna Godavari basin?
    (a) Maharana Pratap
    (b) Dr Hedgewar
    (c) Syama Prasad Mookerjee
    (d) Pandit Deendayal Upadhyay

    No! I don't think/believe that the Chief Minister of the State would have insisted that these questions be asked for recruitment to a government job...

    ...which is what makes it even more scary!!!

    that
  • ... someone must have formed these questions
  • ... they must have gone though a scrutiny by a committee of educated aware people
  • ... some body/agency must have finally approved them to be included in the paper

    ... as if the cancer has spread far and wide

    It was only after the hue and cry fom the media and activists, that the Gujarat Public Service Commission secretary admitted "that certain questions were 'irrelevant'"

    just "irrelvant"??

    Sources:
    Who's for conversion, Sonia or the Pope?
    It’s a test of beliefs in Modi land

  • Tuesday, August 15, 2006

    One Single Vote!... that's India's Democracy is all about!

    Most of us, born and brought up in the Independent India, take the "democracy" as a part and parcel of living. In fact, there are some, I know of, who even crib that we have "too much of democracy"... (though, I am not sure what that exactly means, since democracy - the right to voice your choice - is either/or; it is not a matter of degree...)

    But the fact that India remained a democratic country - the largest democracy, in fact - is something of a wonder/miracle. The only post-colonial country that could maintain this record in the world...

    ...Back then, there were many who always remained sceptical about India's will to remain a democratic country. In 1960s, Selig Harrison, an American scholor-journalist had predicted:

    "The odds are wholly against suvival of freedom and ... the issue is, in fact, whether the Indian state can survive at all."

    India did!

    In 1967, The Time carried out a series of articles entitled "India's Disintegrating Democracy" authored by one Neville Maxwell. A quote:

    "The great experiment of developing India within a democratic framework has failed."

    And yet, the India, as a democratic country, almost 4 decades on, has trudged along... Perhaps not very efficiently. But in spite of all its complexities, failures (and successes), ups-and-downs. After all it was a democratic process in 1977, that ended a dictatorial era of the "Emergency", - and it was the same process that enabled a party, which got 2 seats in parliament in 1985, to form a government in mid-90s, and then get replaced by the "original incumbent" in 2004...

    All these instance are a homage to the spirit of a people...

    Often, what gets missed in the mind-space of the common man (and the educated intelligentia and the middle-class) is the logistical nightmare that goes into keeping the country "democratic".

    The last national elections in 2004:

  • 675mn eligible voters (er.. that was 10%+ of global population)

  • more than 5000 candidates

  • 40+ political parties + more than 1000 "independent" candidates
    (there were so many "Independent" candidates that the Election Commission ran out of the 128 symbols - those tiny line-drawings of everything from apples, to lanterns, to bangles, boats, pillows, combs, bananas, and computers... - in a country largely populated by people who can't read and write, the "election symbol" - a picture - is the only mode of making a choice)

  • around 850,000 polling booths
    (that spread across more that 640,000 villages, including the 35 in Andaman-Nicobar Islands that spread across some 600 sq miles)


    But this was also the 1st National Election, anywhere in the world, that was

  • at a scale that is staggering - effectively, it was the vote of 10% of global population exercing their enfanchise!!

  • directly representative (not though electoral votes), and

  • done on indeginously electronic voting machines (and without any controversy, unlike the Diebold)

    In its typical modern-primitive ways, this is how the Electronic Voting Machines were transported to different polling booths across the sub-continent:

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic


    But perhaps, the greatest insight I ever got about why and how Indian Democracy survived (and will continue to do so) was this small news item that I picked up from a local newspaper... I scanned it, and cherish it:

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic


    We live in a critical time in history, when the "indigenous" democracy is getting usurped/arm-twisted by the "exported" one..

    But nevertheless...

    A Very Happy Independence Day to All!!!

  • Saturday, August 12, 2006

    Future of Work/ Employment in India

    I have been writing ("trying to write", would be a more accurate description;) a paper on Indian workforce and the interventions required to make it gainfully productive.

    In the process, finally, I was able to compile those odd bits of information that I had been collecting over time from various sources. Just thought that this may be interesting to share the two contrasting scenarios, of "tremendous opportunity" and "hopeless inadequacy" about workforce/employment trends in India:
    [Note: Since this a work-in-progress, I have still not compiled/linked the references... But if you are interested, you will find most of these facts-and-figures on the Net... Just "google"]

    Scenario 1: Tremendous Opportunity:

    During last few years, deregulation and technology have brought many new and fast-growing industries into Indian business scene. The growth of, and investments in, sectors such as ITES-BPO, telecom, and, more recently, retail have radically altered the Indian business landscape, and have created huge opportunities as well as challenges.

    Consider, for instance:

  • In barely 6 years, the Indian ITES-BPO sector has created unique business and employment opportunities, with a turnover of $5.2bn (FY’05) and creating about 415,000 jobs (FY’06).

  • Overall, in 2005, the IT sector achieved a turnover of $28.4bn, and contributed to employment of more than 1.3mn knowledge-professionals. According to NASSCOM, “Indian IT-ITES is estimated to have helped create an additional 3 million job opportunities through indirect and induced employment.”

  • According to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), the boom in the telecom sector resulted in direct employment of almost 430,000 people. In addition, the spillover effect in terms of PCOs and cyber-kiosks, have created more than 600,000 jobs.

  • According to a study by All India Management Association, “remote services” (ITES, e-learning, etc.) and “importing customers” (leisure and medical tourism, educational services, etc.) have the potential of creating between 20mn to 72mn jobs by 2020.

  • The more recently deregulateed retail sector is estimated to create approximately another 8mn jobs - directly, or through the value chain
    Etc…

    The optimism and buoyancy, however, fades if one looks at these opportunities, not merely in the context of the corporate business, but within the perspective of overall economy and state of the work-force. In contrast to these opportunities, the profile and trends of Indian work-force shows a widening gap in the availability of requisite skills to leverage on these opportunities. Consider, for instance:

    Scenario 2: Hopeless Inadequacy:

  • According to the National Sample Survey (2000), only 7-8% of the 401mn strong Indian employed workforce is in the organized sector. That is, 92-93% (or about 370mn) workers are in informal or unorganized sector. A majority, almost 80%, of them are in agricultural sector.

  • The SP Gupta Committee Report (2002) from Planning Commission suggests that the employment creation in organised sector became negative during mid-90s. During 1983-94, the employed workforce increased from 240mn to 316mn, while the unemployment had remained more or less constant at 20-21mn. In comparison, during 1994-2000, Indian economy created 21mn jobs; however during the same period, 27mn more people entered the workforce, thus increasing the unemployment by about 6mn. Moreover, 95% of the 21mn jobs created during this period were in the unorganized sector.

  • A majority of the Indian workforce does not possess marketable skills. According to a report by Ministry of Labour and Employment, in the urban area, only about 19.6% of male and 11.2% of female workers possess marketable skills. In the rural areas, the percentage of workforce with marketable skills was even lower: about 10% for male and 6.3% for female.

  • About 80% of job-seekers in employment exchange are without any professional skill.

  • While India boasts of a large young population, only 5% of the Indian labour force in the age category 20-24 have any vocational skills obtained through formal training (as compared to the industrialized countries, where the figure varies between 60% and 80% - in case of Korea, it is 94%).

  • According to one study, the total stock of graduates and post-graduates (in both general and professional education) was just slightly above 25mn in 2000. Extending the growth trends during 1990s, at present (2006), the most optimistic estimates would be merely around 30-32mn.

    So is this a source of real concern?

    ...well, yes, and no - depending on how one views it.

    Much of our policy, interventions and thrust is focused on the assumption that the "employment/job-creation" solution lies in "big business" (creation of SEZs, FDIs into sectors, incentives to big private sector players, etc.).

    Without underestimating the contribution of the "big" private corporate in the organised sector to growth of economy/GDP, etc., the fact still remains that the big, private players merely contributes to 2.5% of India's employment. Even if this sector grows by 30%/annum over the next 5 years, it will actually contibute to less than 1% growth to the employment!!
    (now before someone pounces on this statement, please let me clarify: "real" people in a society do not eat GDP figures or "feel-good" statistics - they need a gainful employment)

    The fact also remains that this is the trend world-over: the unorganised sector (sometimes overlapping with the SMEs - the small & medium enterprises) contributes to the huge chunk of employment generation, e.g.,:

  • In the USA, nearly half of the private workforce is employed in small firms, of which three-fifth have less than five employees.

  • In Japan, 78 per cent of jobs are generated by small and medium enterprises.

  • The SMEs in Korea account for 99 per cent of all manufacturing enterprises and 69 per cent of employment in this sector.

    Perhaps that is why the Planning Commission's Vision 2020 mentions:
    "Therefore, the unorganised sector, including small and medium enterprises, must play a central role in the country’s employment strategy. This will require modification of policies and programmes to level the playing field, improve availability of credit, increase productivity, raise quality consciousness and competitiveness, and enhance job quality.

    Recent experiences of different countries in the context of globalisation also demonstrate that SMEs are better insulated from the pressures generated by the volatility of world trade and capital markets. They are more resistant to the stresses, and more responsive to the demands of the fast-changing technologies...
    "

    And in India:... The "unorganised/informal sector" contributes to
  • 60% of Net Domestic Product
  • 68% of income
  • 60% of savings
  • 31% of agricultural exports
  • 41% of manufactured exports
  • ...and 92-93% of employment (or, livelihood for the about 2/3rd the population)

    And who constitute the bulk of this "unorganised/informal sector" in India?


    - the vendors and hawkers of vegetables, fruit, meat, fish, snack-foods and a myriad of non-perishable items ranging from locks and keys, soaps and detergents, clothing, vessels to books...

    - the owners of those numerous stalls and kiosks selling various things and services... as the road-side cobblers, barbers, tailors, book-binders, cycle mechanics... as the garbage collectors, rag-pickers... construction workers... Landless labours

    - the head-loaders, cart-pullers, camel/bullock/horse-cart drivers ferrying goods/passengers to other places... and of course, the rickshaw and auto rickshaw drivers... the truck drivers...

    - down the narrow crowded lanes, those who work in/own small workshops that repair bicycles and motorcycles, recycle scrap metal, make furniture and metal parts, tan leather and stitch shoes, weave, dye, and print cloth, polish diamonds and other gems, make and embroider garments, sort and sell cloth, paper, and metal waste... and more.

    - the ones who remain "invisible" and produce and sell from their homes/shanties (mostly women) as garment makers, embroiderers, incense stick rollers, bidi-rollers, paper bag makers, kite makers, hair band makers, pickle and papad-makers, and others.

    - the maids, domestic servants, chauffeurs, gardners... the person who comes to wash the car, to deliver newspaper, milk...


    So??...
    What are the options?!!


    Nopes! I don't know (not as yet)... I am still writing the paper!

    UPDATE (Sept 28,'06): The paper did finally get complete. Titled "From Corporate-Centric to Socially-Relevant HR: A Concept Note", can be downloaded (right click, save)

  • Thursday, August 10, 2006

    Indian History Trivia (5): When did India become a Socialist country?

    The preamble of Indian Constitution reads:

    "WE, THE PEOPLE OF INDIA, having solemnly resolved to constitute India into a SOVEREIGN SOCIALIST SECULAR DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC, and to secure to all its citizens:

    JUSTICE, social, economic and political;

    LIBERTY of thought, expression, belief, faith and worship;

    EQUALITY of status and of opportunity;

    and to promote among them all

    FRATERNITY assuring the dignity of the individual and the unity and integrity of the Nation;

    IN OUR CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY this twenty-sixth day of November, 1949, do HEREBY ADOPT, ENACT AND GIVE TO OURSELVES THIS CONSTITUTION."


    -----
    "Socialism" is a dirty word these days... At least among the upward-mobile, urban, literate (educated?), Indian middle class... And many bemoan the "socialism" (which, by a leap of/across logic, gets automatically equated with dictatorship, corruption, inefficiency, stagnation, etc.), and how it kept the country - notwithstanding its history and point of reference - from miraculously transfoming into something like South Korea, Japan, China (despite its being the highest in terms of income disparities), or even USA (...or at least like the top 5% of that country)!!

    In any case, interestingly, the 1949 Indian Consitution does not proclaim that India is "socialist" country... that the new independent India opted to be a "socialist" country is actually a myth!!!

    The original Constitution of India - as can be seen below - says: "We THE PEOPLE OF INDIA, having solumnly resolved to constitute India into a SOVEREIGN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC.... Nothing about being a "socialist" country

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic


    Nehru, himself, was in favour of a mixed economy. In 1956, he said (I think when the Industrial Policy Resolution was ratified):

    "I think it is advantageous for the public sector to have a competitive private sector to keep it up to the mark... I feel that, if the private sector... is abolished completely, there is a risk of the public sector becoming slow, not having that urge and push behind it."

    So when did India become a "Socialist" country?

    Actually, almost 3 decades later - and more than a decade after Nehru's death!!!

    The two additional words "SOCIALIST" and "SECULAR" were added to the Indian Constitution by the controversial 42nd Amendment, by Indira Gandhi in 1976, during the Emergency, and came into effect on January 3, 1977.

    ...Just a bit of historical trivia!!

    Previous in the series:
    (1) The Story of Junagadh

    (2)The Foundations of "Nehruvian Socialism"

    (3) A "Nation-in-Making", and

    (4) Legacy of "The Raj"

    Monday, August 07, 2006

    The "Other" in Modern Indian "Hindu" Psyche

    My last post on "Another Communal "Us"vs."Them" Divide in India" got me a response from a muslim friend:

    Excerpts:
    -------

      I flew back to London from Bombay today... as usual I was several kilos over the baggage allowance, but being a serial offender I knew how to negotiate my way through...as I was returning to the checking counter after scanning the extra bag, this girl from ground staff asked to confirm my last name... when I said what it was, she went and whispered in the ear of the guy at the desk "iske boarding pass pe star lagaya kya?" (have you put the "star" on his boarding pass?)

      At the desk the guy told me that I would have to go to the "customs facilitation desk" after I complete immigration and before boarding to identify my luggage and answer any questions they might have... I asked "hmm.. why me in particular though, is it some new procedure?" so he got all flustered and mumbled that it was a random check...

    --------
    ...but apparently, in India (or rather... in the the urban, educated, middle-class, "Hindu" India), this is not such a "random check" any more. It is reserved for "the Other".
    [the "Hindu" - underlined and bold - is deliberate, since it contrasts with the Hinduism: A Religion that Never Was]

    And who is this "Significant Other" - the enemy?

    A piece by Namita Devidayal describes this "Significant Other" that haunts the Indian "Hindu" (urban, middle-class, and apprently historically clue-less) psyche:

    Excerpts: (do access the original article, if you have time)
    -------
      "It would be easy for the optimistic liberal to conclude that Mumbai is still at heart, 'Bombay', a cosmopolitan city devoid of bigotry. The Hindutva parties were relatively muted in their reaction to the train blasts.

      Muslim organisations came out and condemned the attacks. And no one burned any buses. But even if the city opted out of the violent route, there is a growing rhetoric of violence that is silently seeping into people's psyche, like chemical waste into the soil, and no one knows when and how its effects will be felt.

      The rhetoric is evident in drawing-room discussions, over SMS messages, and in unspoken words and glances. Right after the July 11 blasts, a series of creepy SMSes and e-mails started doing the rounds, posing loaded questions like: "We agree that every Muslim is not a terrorist, but why is every terrorist a Muslim?"

      One e-mail bludgeoned its mass-recipients with the same tired cliches about how the minority community is growing exponentially, and will soon out-populate the majority...

      ...The memory is based as much on imagination as on actual events. For instance, stories about the violence of Partition often become fiercer and fiercer as they get orally transmitted from one generation to the next.... Stereotypes about the 'enemy' get reinforced because they are not based on real encounters or experience...

      More and more residential buildings discriminate on the basis of religion, and they can now do so with the sanction of a Supreme Court verdict that permits housing societies to be formed along community lines.

      Contrary to the utopian era of Amar Akbar Anthony, that wonderful allegory for religious amity, today it is less likely that your child will have a neighbour or a 'building friend' who is from another community — someone whom he can identify with purely as a playmate, share snacks with, maybe even take him one day to his place of worship...

      ...Mumbai may not be Ahmedabad, where children from different communities no longer study together, but it is inching its way there... According to Kakar, "In a period of rising social tension, social identity dominates, if it does not entirely replace, personal identity".

      Researchers working on a Gender and Space project at PUKAR, an NGO, were horrified by the findings of a series of focus group discussions it has held recently in Mumbai.

      Women — from the lofty precinct of Malabar Hill to the smelly bylanes of Dharavi to the neon-lit conclaves of Lokhandwala — were asked to describe what they thought were unsafe areas in the city.

      The answers, almost uniformly were: Minority areas. Had they ever been there? No. Did they know anyone who had been there? No. Their reasons for feeling that way? The men have beards and look dangerous and aggressive. Did they think they may be prejudiced? No.

      ...Only recently in Mumbai, a 'dangerous bearded man' was detained for an unjustifiably long period of time at the international airport. The irony is that he had flown in to attend the funeral of his brother who had died in the train blasts.... He was a victim, not a perpetrator. But stereotypes are beyond reason. They are reductive and create 'us' and 'them' cognitive states.

      For instance, cocktail party chatter today raises mind-numbingly simplistic questions: "Why is it that wherever there is conflict, it involves Islam?"

      Hardly anyone takes the time to discuss the complex history... Arguments are devoid of political analysis or historical context...."

    -------
    ... A troubling question: Are we - the Indians, not the "Hindus" - losing our Sanjhi Virasat?