Tuesday, August 03, 2004

Sudan: From Oil to Turm-Oil

Suddenly, the Civilised World has become aware - and gung-ho - about the "Genocide", "Ethnic Cleansing" and "Humanitarian Crisis" in Sudan. The UN resolution (by US, UK, EU, etc.) warns the Sudanese Govt to resolve a crisis, simmering since 1956, in 30 day!!!... Otherwise, it will have to face... er, well,... it will be invaded/ liberated/ intervened...

This sudden humanitarian interest in Sudan, specially after the Sudanese government reached some kind of peace with the rebels only in April this year, is understandable. One only has to read the Sudan Country Analysis Brief of the Energy Information Administration to comprehend the benevolent motives:

"With the completion of a major oil export pipeline in July 1999, Sudanese crude oil production and exports have risen rapidly over the past few years. Sudan's estimated oil reserves have doubled since 2001, with crude production reaching an estimated 345,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in June 2004. Energy Minister Awad al-Jaz said in May 2004 that he expected crude production to reach 500,000 bbl/d in 2005."

Given that:

  • Iraq oil policy turned out to be disaster
  • Russian Yuko is closing down (which accounted for 2% of world's refined oil capacity)
  • Oil prices have gone beyond $44/barrel
  • China continues to consume more and more oil

...it is natural that the locust must find a new field...

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